Driver Turnover Down

Driver Turnover Down The American Trucking Association has released its quarterly driver turnover report.  According to the report, driver turnover took a surprising dip in the fourth quarter, which the association equates to “the likely result of a weakened economy and overall freight volumes.”

According to the report: 

Turnover at large truckload carriers dropped from an annualized rate of 104% in the third quarter to 90%, its lowest point since the first quarter of the year. For all of 2012, turnover averaged 98%, the highest since 2007 when the churn rate averaged 117%.

At smaller truckload fleets, the turnover rate dipped to 76% from 94% in the previous quarter. Small fleet turnover averaged 82% in 2012 – the highest since 2007’s average of 90%.

“As freight volumes slid a bit at the end of 2012, we saw turnover follow suit,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “However, this is just a respite from the long-term trend and driver shortage storm that’s coming when the freight economy accelerates; and even then, these relaxed levels are still quite high relative to recent years.”

Costello said, the industry is still short between 20,000 and 25,000 drivers.  He says the figure would likely grow higher as the economy strengthens.

“Once we see steadier, more robust economic growth, we could see an industry that is short by as many as 239,000 drivers by 2022,” Costello said. “Hard as it may to believe, we may someday soon look back on turnover rates of just 90% as the good old days as increased demand, an aging workforce and regulatory constraints combine to push the shortage higher.”