2025 marks a quiet end for the freight recession, ACT Research predicts

Freight market analysts say that 2025 will likely mark a quiet end for the freight recession preceded by the pandemic trucking boom. 

Research from ACT Research, DAT, and Freight Transport Research forecasts 2025 to show a small GDP growth of about 2%, stabilizing or possibly rising rates, and a very slight increase in tonnage. 

“The worst is finally over!” the Professional Trucking Association Group wrote in a post about the newly released research regarding the freight recession. “ Small trucking businesses face a tough but improving 2025. After years of overcapacity & soft freight from the post-pandemic bust, capacity is finally contracting—thousands of carriers exited in 2024.”

“Niche focus, cost control & tech adoption key for owner-ops to survive & thrive. Recovery is gradual—no boom yet,” the continued. 

“Currently, with a significant capacity contraction by for-hire fleets and private fleet insourcing slowing, capacity has finally rebalanced enough for rates to start moving higher,” stated Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research. 

“The market is very close to balance, and in 2025 the combination of normalizing equipment supply and a pre-tariff safety stock build are poised to drive higher for-hire freight demand and rates. The big private fleet expansion of the past two years will likely still leave anyone looking for a boom disappointed, but the for-hire rate recession is finally over.”